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Tuesday, August 4, 2020

Bias isn't Science: COVID

The political manipulation of the COVID crisis is not surprising, but certainly should be sifted out by consumers when they listen to how it was or wasn't handled and what someone else might do in the same situation, (which of course wouldn't be the same since we have the experience of COVID).

What is the danger of confirmation bias re health policy or actions? Using the definition of confirmation bias as "making people less likely to engage with information which challenges their views. ... Even when people do get exposed to challenging information, confirmation bias can cause them to reject it and, perversely, become even more certain that their own beliefs are correct," is likely to create decision-making that is wrong.

So, let's get to Nancy Pelosi's latestspin of conspiratorial theory and bias against President Trump by indicating she doesn't "trust" Dr. Birx, implying that Dr. Fauci's the one to follow instead since he's not a Trump appointee. Naturally, neither Pelosi nor Trump nor Biden nor Cuomo nor most of commentators and politicians are physicians nor physicians with expertise, so like the rest of us, they rely on what the "experts" are saying.

However, by picking and choosing their citations and snippets of text,or even which experts they trust in order to FIT with their bias against President Trump, we risk politicized health care, which is by definition NOT SCIENCE.

What emerges from an examination of COVID response is that Biden's prediction that he would've done better is just that, hot air, that Cuomo's self-congratulation that he did well is just that (at least according to nursing homes)and that the SCIENCE we've been informed about indicates that the President's actions/inactions regarding COVID are not unreasonable.

On January 21, 2020, Dr. Fauci said during an interview regarding COVID-19: "This is not a major threat to the people of the United States and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about."(Politifact)

Relying on this science expert's advice, there was NO justification for worry for a President relying on the expert.

In a separate interview, Dr.Fauci repeated his view on January 26, 2020, "It’s a very, very low risk to the United States, but it’s something we, as public health officials, need to take very seriously."

Relying on this expert Fauci advice, what would a President do? President Trump created the State Department's "White House Coronavirus Task Force," on January 29, 2020 that "coordinates and oversees the administration's efforts to monitor, prevent, contain, and mitigate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)." [Wikipedia]

This was a reasonable response to Fauci's "low risk" but "take very seriously."

In a conversation with JAMA, on February 6, 2020, Fauci said, "So, I think that we can say we don't know everything about this virus, but it's evolving in a way that looks like it's adapting itself to infecting much better. But we're going to start seeing a diminution in the overall death rate."

During this same interview on February 6,2020, Dr. Fauci said, "Once you get a broad global pandemic, it's folly to do any travel restrictions because you can't cut yourself off from the rest of the world."

Despite Fauci's advice that travel restrictions are folly, on February 2, President Trump issued an executive order blocking entry to US of anyone in China 'during the past 14 days' became effective, though seemingly Dr. Fauci on February 6 called such action and travel restrictions as "folly."

March 3, 2020, the White House issued guidance(whitehouse.gov), with advice for people to obey state and local authorities and additionally advising to stay home if sick, if your children are sick keep them home, if someone tests positive keep them home, if you are older stay home, if you have an underlying health condition stay home, and other recommendations such as avoiding social gatherings of more than 10 people.

As an example, such gatherings weren't banned until 3/20/2020 in New York.

On April 6, 2020 the WHO said that healthy people had no need to wear masks, though the CDC at the time was advising wearing masks. Dr. Fauci joined the side of the WHO in advising AGAINST wearing face masks by healthy people, though he changed his mind much later.

During July, Dr. Fauci defended his decision stating that "it was right in the context of the time in which I said it."

In mid-July, the President started wearing a mask himself, clearly, like Fauci, taking the action in the context of the time.

Note, there are still face mask discussions about the quality of the face masks and their effectiveness and in the meantime, Fauci's gone even further,recommending goggles and eye shields as of 7/31/2020.

Joe Biden's claim that Donald Trump told people to drink bleach? Well, that's just a lie, rated "Mostly false" by Politifact. See, "No, Trump didn’t tell Americans infected with the coronavirus to drink bleach," https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/jul/11/joe-biden/no-trump-didnt-tell-americans-infected-coronavirus/. OK, so now we know what Biden will do…Lie.

If you look at the FDA website, on March 28 2020, the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for emergency use of oral formulations of chloroquine phosphate (CQ) and hydroxychloroquine sulfate (HCQ) to be distributed from the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS).

On May 25, 2020, President Trump said he'd "just finished" taking hydroxychloroquine for two weeks.

About two-and-a-half months from its first 3/28/2020 recommendation, the FDA on June 15, 2020, revoked EUA (Emergency Use Authorization) for chloroquine phosphate (CQ) and hydroxychloroquine sulfate (HCQ).

Dr. Fauci was consistently opposed to COVID uses of hydroxychloroquine, though as of July 1,2020, the FDA states, "FDA cautions against use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for COVID-19 outside of the hospital setting or a clinical trial due to risk of heart rhythm problems."

Many of the rest of the complaints about are largely political stances, including from governors who wanted the President to do "MORE," which translated into more federal dollars, but still demanding that they, the governors run their own jurisdictions.

How do we know? The NEW YORK TIMES on April 13, 2020, itself reported on the disagreement among governors but overall commitment of governors to be "in charge" of their own states, objecting to the President's efforts to create a national approach, criticizing: "Trump Insists He Has ‘Total’ Authority to Supersede Governors."

A note about reopening. Since at least July, 2020, the CDC recommends reopening schools citing the benefits vs risks of not attending schools. (Look up CDC.gov). But of course, citing the increased risk of infection the CDC also says that this doesn't mean that all schools should open five days a week. Dr. Fauci agrees on reopening schools, though he hedges his bets by indicating hot spots should remain closed.

So, were Trump's responses to COVID ignoring science, in spite of science, counter to science? No and claims of the same are political smear, not reality of the science journey of COVID.

Where does that leave us without political spin and malice, and heavy confirmation bias? It may take some real working with ourselves to realize it, but President Trump responded to COVID-19 appropriately.