Over 11 million enrolled in Obamacare plans according to 2/18/2015 news.
In January of 2015, The Congressional Budget Office cautiously predicted in its “Updated Estimates of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act,” http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/49892-breakout-AppendixB.pdf, “Over the course of calendar year 2015, an average of 12 million people are expected to be covered by insurance through the exchanges, but the actual number will not be known precisely until after the year has ended,” (CBO, page 6). They were right!
But what will the Obamacare fans do if the Congressional Budget Office’s report really IS right? I mean, it is a 15-page report.
No doubt you’ve been alerted to part of it as pro-Obamacare sites declare that Obamacare is cheaper for the government than expected. Hurray for Obamacare.
In articles like the January 27, 2015 article on ThinkProgress.org by Sam P.K. Collins the headline declared: “Obamacare’s Coverage Expansion Will Cost Less Than We Expected,” and noted that the reduction was due “…to the ‘slowdown in the growth of health care costs,’ and lower projections of government-subsidized premiums.”
But it IS a 15-page report.
Premium assistance tax credits: On page 11 the report states: “Lower estimated enrollment in coverage obtained through the exchanges in every year accounts for the majority of the $28 billion reduction in the estimated cost of premium assistance tax credits,” (CBO, Page 11). Well, THAT’S not good when ENROLLMENT is the number one goal of a law. That doesn’t sound like costing less than anticipated, it sounds like having to pay out to fewer people than anticipated.
The CBO doesn’t worry much about premium tax credits moving forward in terms of the cost to the federal government either because “The ACA specifies that if total exchange subsidies exceed a certain threshold in any year after 2017—a condition that CBO and JCT expect may be satisfied in some years—people will be required to pay a larger share of premiums in the following year than would otherwise be the case, thus restraining the amount that the federal government pays in subsidies,”(CBO, 2015, page 3). Oh no, that’s no good, even people on exchanges will be paying a larger share of premiums.
The slowdown of healthcare costs has been costs for payers, not us. When insurers pay less you know who’s paying more, right? That would be us. The CBO report confirms: “Another notable influence on the downward revision to projected federal costs is the slowdown in the growth of health care costs that has been experienced by private insurers, as well as by the Medicare and Medicaid programs,” CBO, 2015, page 15. Savings in GOVERNMENT costs, not our costs.
Lowered costs of Obamacare because more people than thought are choosing cheaper plans: Oh no, the federal government is also saving money on cost-sharing subsidies (as differentiated from premium tax credits) and the CBO thinks that this trend will continue because it expects “…that more people will forgo those subsidies by choosing to enroll in a bronze plan instead of a silver plan…” Even though the “…agencies had previously estimated that few people would forgo cost-sharing subsidies… data suggest that a significant number of people are selecting plans that minimize their monthly premium payments…” CBO page 13.
That’s no good. That means that health plans aren’t so affordable after all since greater numbers than anticipated are opting for cheaper bronze plans (with no availability of cost-sharing subsidies though you can still get premium assistance). More people with crummier coverage than anticipated, that can’t be good.
Higher costs of Medicaid than Anticipated: Oh no, the CBO says the federal government spending on Medicaid is expected to go up 38% in the next three years as it reports: “…the added costs to the federal government for Medicaid and CHIP resulting from the ACA will be $47 billion in 2015 and will grow to $76 billion in 2018,” (CBO, 2015, page 9).
So, the CBO predicted enrollment accurately (as of today’s announcement), but as consumers what if they really ARE right?
