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Wednesday, September 11, 2019

2019 Census.gov Reports Uninsured Rate is UP for 2018 to 2019

This is the SECOND INCREASE in the uninsured rate reported for the last two years. 2016 to 2017 saw an increase in the uninsured rate and year 2017 to 2018 saw an increase in the uninsured rate. Data is from the US Census (census.gov) website. BUT what that data is saying is likely NOT what you'll be reading, so just for a reality check take a peek.

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2018/demo/p60-264/figure2.pdf on the census.gov website clearly shows that the year 2013 to 2014 was the calendar year that had the biggest DECREASE in the uninsured rate.

It was also the year (12/2013) Obama's lie about if if you like your health care plan you can keep it earned him the PolitiFact Lie of the Year. It was also the year the partnership between government and the insurance lobby that imposed a PENALTY TAX on any individual who didn't purchase the consumer financial product came into effect, THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATE.

Medicaid expansion under the ACA, where the federal government departed from rules of divvying costs between the federal government and states for Medicaid and instead provided the federal government would pick up the majority of the tab, also were in effect.

THIS YEAR, 2019, there is no longer a REQUIREMENT, an or ELSE penalty/tax if you don't purchase health insurance. NOTE: I advocate having health insurance for your protection NOT because the government decides to punish people via a tax/penalty for NOT purchasing a consumer financial product, specifically health insurance. I also don't support penalizing people with a continuous coverage penalty which amounts to the SAME THING (except it's imposed by insurance companies not the government), penalizing individuals financially for not purchasing the consumer financial product of health insurance.

The INCREASE in the number of uninsured reported by census.gov in 2018 for the year 2016-2017 was NOT deemed "STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT," by census.gov.

Last year, September, 2018, discussing the uninsured rate of 2017 INCREASE in the number of uninsured, the census.gov website includes Edward Berchick's " MOST UNINSURED WERE WORKING-AGE ADULTS," where Berchick states that "In 2017, the number of people without health insurance increased to 28.0 million, up from 27.3 million the year before, according to the latest American Community Survey data released today."

More specifically, in 2018, Berchick continued: "In fact, most uninsured people (84.6 percent) were 19- to 64-year-olds.The two largest groups in that age range are 26- to 34-year-olds and 35- to 44-year-olds. About 1 in 4 uninsured people were 26 to 34 years old, and about 1 in 5 people ages 34 to 44."

The newly reported stats for 2017-2018, reported September, 2019, in "Percentage of People Uninsured by Age" reported by Census.gov shows another INCREASE in the number of uninsured in age groups 0-18 (0.5 percent), 19-25 (0.6 percent), 35-44 (1.1 percent), 45-64 (1 percent). With the SAME groups as last year experiencing the largest increases in the percentage of uninsured again this year: 19- to 64-year-olds.

This year you'll note that ages 19-25 uninsured were up 0.6 percent, age 35-44 up 1.1 percent and age 45-64 up 1 percent. Interestingly, on this chart, the asterisk next to an age group used to indicate "significance," omits the 0.6 percent increase in uninsured 19-25 year olds as significant, yet considers the 0.5 percent increase in 0-18 years olds of 0.5 percent as significant.

Also note that census.gov states: "Between 2017 and 2018, the percentage of people with public coverage decreased 0.4 percentage points, and the percentage of people with private coverage did not statistically change."

Don't Put Words in Census.gov's Mouth: You'll see lots of opinions on what the data "means," but as NPR stated in its "Fewer Children Had Health Insurance In 2018 Than Year Before, Census Data Shows," 9/10/2019, Selena Simmons-Duffin article, "The Census Bureau did not offer an explanation for the decline in kids' insurance rates, saying only that insurance rates change in response to economic and demographic trends, and policy shifts."

If you go to the state by state data, you'll see how your own state is doing in terms of its number of uninsured, whether it's UP, DOWN, and whether its change is considered statistically significant by census.gov. https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2019/demo/p60-267/Figure_9.pdf

On the chart, the lighter dot is year 2017 and the darker dot is 2018, so if the darker dot is to the right of the lighter dot, there was an increase in the number of uninsured according to Census.gov. Also, if the name of the state is in bold, the change is considered STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT.

According to this data, significant INCREASES in the number of uninsured occurred in the US overall and, Michigan, Washington, Ohio, Alabama, Tennessee, Arizona, Idaho, and Texas, individually.

According to this data, significant DECREASES in the number of uninsured occurred in Wyoming, South Carolina, New York, and Washington.

Partisan politics aside, the FACTS as disclosed by census.gov are:
The biggest DECREASE in the number of uninsured between the years 2008 and 2017 occurred from 2013-2014, the year of effective dates for Obamacare provisions like the individual mandate and when expanded Medicaid began being adopted by more states.

YES, the uninsured rate is up for years 2017-2018, YES, it was up for years 2016-2017 (though not deemed statistically significant), YES, the biggest percent increases in the number of uninsured for years 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 were in the 19 to 64 year old range, YES, the DROP in people covered by public insurance as opposed to private insurance was significant, and NO, the census.gov research offers NO CONCLUSIONS as to WHY this increased number of uninsured and drop in Medicaid/CHIP coverage occurred.